FL and OH Redux in '08, w/ MO added in

While the 2008 electoral map has its obvious differences from the prior 2 maps, once again, FL and OH appear to be the 2 most hotly contested big states.  Based upon current projections in FiveThirtyEight.com (538), half the states and DC are unlikely to be competitive this year.  In only 10 states is the currently trailing candidate given a shot of 32% or better.  IOW, it is likely that the focus of the rival campaigns will narrow in the coming weeks.

538 currently projects that 1 candidate has a 90% chance or better in 25 states, including megastates NY, TX, IL, and CA.  While Obama only leads in 11 of those 25 states, McCain's include 9 states w/ 6 EVs or less, while Obama's states include 3 of the 4 megastates.  Obama's 90% states total 165 EVs, while McCain's 90% states total 139 EVs.  If, furthermore, one drops the bar to an 86% probability, Obama picks up another 42 EVs, while McCain only picks up another 13 EVs.  

In short, there are over 350 EVs (about 2/3 of the total available) that are not seriously in play right now.  Past purple states such as MN, WI, OR, and WA are firmly in the Obama column at present.  McCain is given a 30% shot in MI and only a 20% shot in PA.  VA is the only red state w/ >3 EVs where Obama is seriously competitive (51% shot), and McCain is not even remotely competitive in a single blue state.

Given this set of facts, the focus of both campaigns will almost inevitably narrow in the coming weeks.  Besides VA, the only states w/ >10 EVs where the trailing candidate is currently given a >30% chance are FL (68-32 McCain), OH (58-42 Obama), and MO (67-33 McCain).  The former 2 states were, of course, most heavily contested in the last 2 elections, and they and MO should all be major battlegrounds this time.

NC (76-24 McCain) should not be written off by Obama yet, but it, VA, and FL (aggregate 55 EVs) are really the only states of the former Confederacy that he should be considering for a major effort.  McCain will almost inevitably have to contest NM (76-24 Obama), NH (61-39 Obama), and CO (61-39 Obama), but those 3 states only aggregate for 18 EVs.  MT (61-39 McCain) and NV (60-40 McCain) are worth contesting for Obama, but they only aggregate for 7 EVs.

Barring some serious shifts, this year's electoral map is, arguably, just as narrow as the past 2 maps.  The main difference is that the skew of the safe and relatively safe states has visibly shifted in Obama's direction.  It offers all the more reason for him to pursue FL and MO aggressively and to defend OH just as aggressively.

The lead story on the FP of today's Miami Herald makes it even clearer that Obama should make a major effort in the Sunshine State.  If, as this article forecasts, the AA vote will be critical here, it's obvious which candidate will hold a decided advantage.  As the article notes:

Of the 211,000 new Democratic voters registered in Florida in the first six months of 2008, nearly 30 percent are black. Another untapped resource is the 388,360 black voters that the Florida Democratic Party says stayed home in 2004. (Democrat John Kerry lost Florida by about 381,000 votes.)

Republican officials say the number of blacks who didn't vote is closer to 235,700 and are skeptical of an outpouring of Obama supporters in November.

Regardless of which 2004 AA turnout #'s are used, it is obvious that a heavier turnout this time could have the same impact that the heavy AA turnout of '00 had.  This time, hopefully, those voters will be able to exercise their franchise, and all votes will be counted, to boot.  538's regression analysis only gives McCain a 50.3-47.8 polling edge here w/ a MOE of 7.8%. That edge could be considerably narrowed w/ high black turnout.  

It is still early, and events could, obviously, change this map by the fall.  Obama's campaign has the resources to contest a wider map than those that were contested by the Dems in '00 and '04 and it should utilize those resources to do so at this stage.  When push comes to shove, however, 538 offers evidence that the greatest efforts will ultimately have to be mounted in the same battleground states of the past 2 elections.

Cross-posted at Flapolitics.com.